I ordered the new iPad and keyboard on the second day of availability. Day one ordering is not a factor because you can still order one several days after I ordered and get day-one delivery or pickup. The keyboard, however, is a different story. My initial delivery date was a range from the 26th - 2nd - something like that. Day one delivery was a distinct possibility. A couple days later, I was notified that the date had slipped to a window of the 31st - 2nd. At the time of this writing, orders have slipped another day for both sides of the range.

The real question is why. I have some speculation about this that I hope is wrong. These are the three possibilities that come to mind:

Supply Chain

Apple has had a very long time to source the parts for this product. It is not as if they just came up with it a few months before putting it up for sale. This would have been years in the making. That said, a lot of supply chain foolishness has happened since then. For a while, Apple has acknowledged the problem of sourcing legacy nodes. The chip shortage hasn’t helped. And there is a good chance that Apple is using some sort of computer chip in the keyboard. Heck! They even use chips in some of their cables. It could be that some component just hit an unexpected shortage and Apple couldn’t make enough for initial demand.

Underestimated Demand

Another potential problem is that Apple simply underestimated demand for the new keyboard. After all, how likely is it that all purchasers of a budget iPad would spend more than half again for an accessory? The likelihood is practically zero.

So we have to consider the question of just how many people would buy a $250 keyboard for a $450 iPad. I would have thought that number would be vanishingly small but for one factor: The Magic Keyboard Folio for iPad is the first new iPad accessory in a long time. Moreover, it has unique features such as a function row, kickstand, and detachable keyboard. These are features even pro users would be interested in.

We must also recognize the fact that this new iPad only brings two new features to the table. Both are huge. It gets the centralized landscape camera and the new keyboard option. Surely Apple must have known that the keyboard would be driving many of this iPad’s sales. Yet people who ordered for day-one delivery will be waiting a what could be a week or more for the thing that drove the sale in the first place.

Confusing iPad Lineup

I strongly suspect that many people purchased the new keyboard in error. As I already pointed out, many pro users will want this keyboard and simply could not imagine that a new keyboard accessory wouldn’t work with their iPad. This is an even easier mistake for iPad Air users to make since the two iPads have the same display size.

When they look at the picture on the website, they see the keyboard being used with an iPad that looks like theirs. It is not obvious that it only works with a single iPad in the lineup. I predict that there will be many unhappy people in Apple Stores on the 26th who will be returning a product that just seems defective to them. Apple is going to have a tough time with market education for this one.

Conclusion: Accessories Matter

iPad is not just about the chunk of metal and glass. It is about what you can do with it. The keyboard is a vital part of any computing platform outside of handhelds. Apple had to know there would be strong demand for this product. When it comes to Apple enthusiasts, accessories matter a lot.

I suspect the product will be well reviewed because all of the reviewers will also be getting the new keyboard with the package. But the experience of the average user will not be as rosy because they will be without this all-important accessory for what seems like an age. At the moment, there is no option for in-store pickup. I will be braving the elements to try and score a day-one keyboard. But at the moment, it doesn’t look good. Wish me luck. And good luck to all.

David Johnson