Since the first iPhone, I have upgraded every year. It has been unthinkable that I would miss a year. I have always been on some kind of plan that allows me to get a new phone every year. Besides a small fee up front, it is usually inexpensive to do so. My thinking has been along the lines of, why not upgrade. What do I gain by hanging on to my current handset? For the first time, I am having a different thought.

If it ain’t broke…

There is literally nothing wrong with my current iPhone 11 Pro Max except the name. There is no guarantee that will get any better with the next revision. I am more than satisfied with the pictures I take. And my battery health is at peak performance capacity. I seldom run my battery all the way down before I go to bed at nigh. So I feel like I am good to go for at least another year with regard to the battery.

The screen is in pristine condition. In every respect, the phone could be mistaken for brand new and fresh out of the box. That is true with all my past phones around this time of year. Even as a child, I always took very good care of more toys.

The software still runs like new. I am running the beta as I always do this time of year. Yet I am suffering no slowdowns or abnormal behaviors. Apps still spring to life and speed is never an issue no matter how many apps I happen to have open. I cannot manufacture a reason to ditch this phone for a new one. So I am having trouble getting excited about what is coming next.

Uninspiring rumors

By this time of the year, there are usually at least a handful of rumors that raise an eyebrow. This year, I’ve got nothing. Here is a list of what Mac Rumors thinks they know about the upcoming lineup:

• Four iPhones
• New physical design
• 5.4", 6.7", and 6.1" sizes
• Triple-lens 3D camera
• All OLED displays
• 5G connectivity
• A14 chip
• $649 starting price

Most of this list is uninteresting. I am always interested in new designs. But if those designs just refer to different sizes, it is not as compelling. That said, it is time for a major design refresh. If this is the year the notch goes away, I might give it a second look.

There is already a triple camera system. And I really don’t care about 3D. Historically in the tech world, 3D stands for failure. It has been all sizzle and no steak. Apple would have to take photography in a new place. It would not be compelling simply to produce a camera that takes slightly better photos than the one I have. I am not interested in incremental gains year over year.

I already have an OLED display. I have yet to see a single positive review of 5G as it currently exists. A slightly faster chip does not float my boat. The starting price is meaningless since it is competing against my not upgrading at all.

The various sizes might be intriguing. I am somewhat tired of carrying the largest phone all the time. I like the size and feel of the iPhone 11. So it wouldn’t take much for me to ditch the big phone and go for something a bit smaller.

Not mentioned in that list is lidar. I have it on my 11” iPad and use it exactly zero times a day. I don’t care what it can do theoretically. I care about what it can do for me right now. Has anyone else been struck by the internet’s silence on this front? We have not been bombarded with new and exciting apps that take advantage of the feature. It has no buzz or momentum. I’m not really interested in the tech. I am interested in what the tech can do for me. So far, no one has actualized that right now. The current crop of rumors are not feeding my hunger for new gadgets.

Failure of imagination

Rumors aside, I am having a failure of imagination. I can’t imagine what would make me excited about upgrading. The truth is I don’t take a lot of pictures. That’s just not my thing. So even a vastly improved camera is not enough to get me to jump.

Let’s say this 3D imaging pans out. What does that even mean? Would it really make the perfect picture of the perfect flower more perfect? Would I really see the difference on scree, on every screen? How much extra storage would I need for these 3D masterpieces? And would I be able to easily share these photos with other people who don’t have the 3D hotness? There are lots of things that can dampen the excitement about a new kind of imaging.

Perhaps I would get excited if I could think of a new kind of app or functionality. I seriously cannot think of anything I want to do with my phone that I cannot already do well. Most of what I want has to do with accessibility. Even so, I cannot think of any accessibility tech I want that can’t be enabled via software. The hardware is already capable.

That is the real key. The hardware is already more than capable. I am having a hard time imagining something that Apple could do that would get me to upgrade that requires new hardware. That is probably just my failure of imagination. We will see in a few weeks.

Beyond smartphones

It might just be that I am over smartphones. The rest of the smartphone competition has blasted their reveals and I find nothing exciting about them either. Not one competitor has announced anything that makes me wish Apple would implement that one wow feature. I still don’t care about folding screens, or somehow hinging two phones together. I don’t care about rounded displays. There might be something to using the smartphone as the guts of a tablet. But I already have a tablet. So I hardly see the point. If I didn’t have a tablet already, I would just buy one rather than try to simulate one.

My upgrade apathy extends beyond smartphones. I have no reason to upgrade my Mac mini or my laptop or my iPad Pro. They are all at the top of their game with resources I never even use. When they come out, the new models will also have resources I will never use. That said, I will very likely get one of the first Apple Silocon Macs because… just because. Sometimes, you just have to get your geek card stamped.

It has been a long time coming. But I think I am finally ready to enter the upgrade cycle of a normal human being. Replacing things that are working perfectly well is crazy with the exception of a handful of reasons:

The case for a fast upgrade cycle

First, the economics of upgrading more often might just make more sense than you think. If you keep a product until it is no longer useful, you will never be able to sell it for a reasonable return on investment. By selling things in near mint condition, you can obtain top-dollar for your preowned wares. Buying a Mac every couple of years means you are out of pocket a few hundred dollars each time. It is a little like leasing a new car every two years.

If you buy a high-end Mac and customize the heck out of it, you are going to be paying anywhere from $2K to $5K every four years. You are not really saving money over a new base-model machine every couple years. There are ways to make the math work out.

Second, if you work in the industry, you might have a legitimate reason to sample each new generation of product. You cannot really report on the current state of the Mac if yours is nearing obsolescence Unless you are one of those reviewers who gets free review hardware directly from Apple to keep for extended periods of time, you are going to have to foot the bill yourself. That means upgrading a little more often than everyone else.

Finally, money is no object and you just like new tech. I think we all like new tech. But for most of us, money is most certainly an object.

A case for a slower upgrade cycle

Macs and iPads last for a long time. This has been true for a long time. And it still is. A two year old Mac will be more reliable and feel newer than a brand new PC. We all know that PCs don’t tend to age well at all. Everything from their designs to their functionality age poorly. Macs give you few reasons to replace them with the latest and greatest thing.

The last Mac mini I had was good for about 6 years. Before that, I had an iMac for about 5 years. I often use a product for a few years and hand it down to my wife in like-new condition. It proves to be plenty fast and reliable for her. There is also the fact that Apple products continue to get updates for at least four years, sometimes more. You will likely just get tired of your Mac before it actually stops being useful.

Second, these are hard, economic times. A few business types are thriving. But far too many of us are still out of work with no real indication of when things will get back to normal. We can’t even say that this isn’t the new normal. That means money is a lot tighter overall. This is the time to buy the best Mac you can afford and keep it for a long time. The same is true for your smartphone and tablet.

No one ever said Apple products were cheap. They are premium products at a premium price. The worst thing you can do is buy something cheap during a time of crisis. That is the time when you need your products to be their most reliable. Buy cheap, and you will have to buy again and again. Buying once and making it last is the order of the day.

Finally, it is past time we get serious about our impact on the planet. I don’t come from a time and place that much cared about carbon footprint and other environmentalists terms. It is hard for me to think in those terms even now. Even so, we can all do more to waste less.

It starts with a mindset. That frame of mind has to carry over into everything we do. It is not about being frugal. It is about being responsible. One easy way to impact the environment in a positive way is not to buy things we don’t need. I am one of the biggest offenders. So it starts with me, and continues with you.

Conclusion: 2, 2, and 4

Right now, most smartphone programs have you paying off that phone in 2 years. That is a good starting point for the length of time one should keep their smartphone before moving on. At that point, you can sell it and use the money to defray the cost of your next one. You will also appreciate the upgrade after two years rather than one.

Two years is also a good starting point for iPads. The only reason I don’t recommend more is that there is still a lot of movement in tablets. They gain more interesting features faster. As a platform, they are not as old as smartphones. So you might actually benefit from upgrading every two years. Also, iPads will still have resale value after two years. Now that Apple lets you pay for them with the installment plan, that is worth considering. If you don’t care about the latest and greatest, an iPad will easily last 4 years before you absolutely need to replace it. Three might be a good compromise.

There are not many good reasons to replace a Mac more often than 4 years. They will last even longer. But after 4 years, they will start to feel their age as new software takes its tole.

This is the cycle most people are on anyway. This article is not for most people. It is for us tech enthusiasts. We can all stand to do a little better. Let’s see if I manage to live up to my aspirations. I have already kept my watch for two years and it could easily go for a third. That’s a start.

David Johnson